Climate Adaptation – the key role of “adaptive resilience”

It is now widely recognised that complete mitigation of global environmental change is already out of reach, and that consequently institutional frameworks for sustainable development must include governance for adaptation. (Note 1)

Local and regional governments will play a key role in efforts directed at the practical planning and implementation of climate change adaptation.


Adaptive Resilience Framework

The structure of efforts facilitated through services delivered by or on behalf of governments should be around:

1. Purpose focused policies
The focus should be on developing adaptive resilience through achievement of agreed objectives. (Note 2)

A resilience which goes beyond coping, to include continual adaptation and redesign in pursuit of core purpose.

2. Adaptive governance systems.
We should place emphasis on innovation and environmental scanning for future change, and structure organisations for capacity and change rather than assume a stable, fixed state.

Consistent, coherent and well researched risk information should be integrated into corporate and operational processes.

3. Risk based interventions.
Corporate risk assessment criteria should act as a strategic framework for priority setting and decision making activities, including the consideration of opportunities to build adaptive capacity, to advance learning, and to develop new approaches and programs.

Notes

1. “Rio+20 Policy Brief #3: Transforming governance and institutions for a planet under pressure” March 2012 p. 7.

2. Resilience can be usefully characterized by a combination of the following:

• Culture of shared purpose and values

• Predictable financial resources

• Strong internal and external networks

• Intellectual, human and physical assets

• Leadership, management and governance

• Adaptive capacity featuring innovation and experimentation

• Situation awareness of environment and performance

• Management of key vulnerabilities by planning for disruption

(Ref “Making adaptive resilience real” Mark Robinson, 2010 p. 27.)

Hazards, Vulnerability, Disasters - beyond musings on the meanings of words.

This note is derived from a presentation to the FinPro Conference 2012, Creswick Novotel, Victoria, Australia. A copy of the complete paper is available here as a pdf.

By John Salter, Director Emergency Preparedness Capacity Builders

www.disasterresilience.com

A fundamental issue - Plans vs. Planning

Standards and Guidelines for disaster and business continuity management focus on two things:

1. To plan, establish, implement, operate, monitor, review, maintain and continually improve a documented management system; and
2. To protect against, reduce the likelihood of occurrence, prepare for, respond to and recover from disruptive incidents when they arise.

If our emphasis is on the documentation of yet another “plan, do, check, act” system, then standards will be a burden rather than an enabler – a significant risk in a marketplace already crowded with standards, systems and guidelines.

If standards and guidelines are used to support planning – active collaboration to achieve sound outcomes – with only the minimum necessary documentation – then it is more likely to deliver traction.

If we are mindful and use a strategic approach, we should address the key due diligence issue – or “coroner’s test”: i.e. “what you ought to know and do – about risks and their management”. The set of crucial decision points that should be addressed in every disaster management and business continuity management situation, are about:

(1) what is the risk (detection),

(2) what does the risk mean (recognition and interpretation),

(3) who has an interest (communication to multiple stakeholders), and

(4) who should do what (organization of a collaborative system).

Specific objectives will emerge according to the nature and scope of the particular disaster or crisis.

Key Terms - and their meanings

Words and their meanings – or their different meanings – are important when developing context and establishing shared understandings. This enables communication and avoids the “Tower of Babel” syndrome whereby many languages contribute to project failure.

So in checking some terms, let us start with “disaster”. First, while focused on pain thresholds and capacity to cope, the term disaster is contextual – "your thresholds and capacity to cope may not be the same as mine".



Risk is a function of the interface between hazards and the vulnerabilities of your "care-fors"

Second, it is important to recognize that "hazard events are not necessarily disasters". Yes, hazards contribute to risk, but an extreme event only becomes a disaster when it impacts something we attribute value to (our “care-abouts”).

For the same natural phenomenon - sink holes - different consequences.

Incorporating a focus on vulnerability opens up a rich vein of considerations - about what might be the most appropriate thing(s) to do to “protect against, reduce the likelihood of occurrence, prepare for, respond to and recover from disruptive incidents when they arise” (ISO 22313).

A risk based approach focuses on the likelihood of consequences – not the likelihood of hazard events.

While a risk based approach sits comfortable with an “all hazards” approach, it should be recognized that an “all hazards” approach is a civil defence construct – applying largely to response, relief and recovery arrangements which can benefit from such efficiencies. In a more comprehensive risk based approach there needs to be a recognition that “fire is not water” – and that prevention strategies for each need to be tailored.

The framework within which the risk based approach is applied is often referred to as PPRR – or Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery. This P²R² heuristic device was introduced in the 1980’s as an instrument of American foreign policy to encourage third world nations away from reliance upon a post disaster “hand up for hand out” approach. It is not a simple linear construct – though it has constrained thinking by being used in that simple, indeed simplistic manner. A more useful display of the relationship between the four words is displayed here.

What does this mean for communities at risk and the businesses upon which they rely?
There is a need to develop - by planning before a disaster - strategies which reduce vulnerability. Line one in the diagram below which reflects the purpose – or business case – of business continuity planning. To mitigate impact before and after a disruption event.

 

Risk Assessment ≠ Risk Analysis

One distinction between "risk management" in the USA and the rest of the world was - and maybe to a degree still is - the different meanings of "anaysis" and "assessment".

For the United States: "Assessment = Analysis"

For the rest: "Assessment = Identification + Analysis + Evaluation"

Aligned with the Intenational Risk Management Principles and Guidelines (ISO 31000)

• Context and Identification are about nailing your risk issues by focusing on their consequences in relation to "the things you value" (objectives).
• Analysis is about premising the likelihood of those consequences (given the effectiveness of current controls).
• Evaluation involves judgment of acceptability.

To help address this issue and add some value to those who may want to consider it, we have developed a risk assessment tool which is aligned with the International Risk Management Standard, easy to use, inexpensive and works on Excel software as old as 1997 - or the most recent version.

The structure of the tool fully aligns with the structure of the ISO 31000 process.

More information on how the Risk Assessment Tool works is available by downloading this pdf.

We are please to make this immediate download available for the SALE price of only US$14.95

EPCB weekly Risk Management Newsletter launched

To bring together items of common interest and tweets, EPCB will make available a "Paper.li" web-based publication which will provide a collection of (hopefully) interesting items in the one spot -The url for the publication is http://paper.li/risk_reward/1326694527 for those of you who want to consider subscribing to a weekly notification.